The London Junto

"Is China the Next Dubai?" Feb 24th, at the Lansdowne Club

2010-01-26T17:33:00.010Z

Superficially, Dubai's rapid development from speck of dust in the desert to mirage made real is not that different from China’s. Cheap financing combined with world-class aspirations fueled Dubai's property boom that included the world's tallest building, the Burj Dubai. Property prices doubled between 2005 and 2008. The emirate's rulers even targeted a China-beating annual GDP growth of 11% to 2015.

China bulls will dismiss uncomfortable comparisons with Dubai. After all, the population of China is a thousand times greater than the tiny emirate's. And Dubai's $50-billion GDP is less than the wealth China has generated in the last three months.

Jim Chanos, founder of the investment firm Kynikos Associates and iconic short seller, has put the Chinese market in his sights. Chanos made his reputation—and a good chunk of his fortune—as one of the first Wall Street analysts to see that Enron's earnings were pure fiction. He has called China "1000 times worse than Dubai."

Join the London Junto as our panel of experts debate the potential collapse of the Chinese bubble and its implications for the global economy.

Andrew Leung

Andrew is a prominent international China specialist with 40 years of experience in many senior government positions in Hong Kong, including commerce, industry, banking, finance and overseas diplomatic representation. He oversaw the migration and transformation of Hong Kong's industries into the Pearl River Delta, now the Factory of the World. Andrew's last position was Hong Kong’s chief official representative for the United Kingdom and 14 EU and non-EU countries, including Russia, Switzerland and Norway. He is now Chairman of Andrew Leung International Consultants Limited based in London.

Hugh Hendry

Hugh is a partner and CIO of Eclectica. He is the principal portfolio manager and leads both the investment thinking and the research team. He has 18 years' industry experience with Baillie Gifford, CSAM and Odey Asset Management. At Odey he managed a range of funds from $1.0bn of long only European mandates, including the award winning Odey Continental European Fund, to the The Eclectica Fund. Hugh graduated from Strathclyde University in 1990.

He achieved some notariety in 2009 as an early bear on China, thanks to this video that was posted on You Tube.

DATE: Wednesday, February 24, 2010
TIME: 6:30 PM for 7:00 PM
LOCATION: Lansdowne Club (Shelburne Room)
9, Fitzmaurice Place, London. W1J 5JD.
Tube: GreenPark.
email: info@londonjunto.com

Tickets for the event are £25.00. This includes:

=>a welcome glass of wine or other beverage
=>a chance to win a copy of "China: Fragile Superpower" by Susan Shirk

"The Rise Of Sovereign Wealth Funds: Financial Bane or Blessing?"

2008-11-12T13:41:00.006Z

Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) - a term first used by one of our panelists Andrew Rozanov in 2005- are giant investment pools funded from a country's central bank reserves. SWFs have recently hit the headlines thanks to their high profile investments in Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, and Merrill Lynch. With the assets of Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) already almost double the entire hedge fund sector's assets of $1.7 trillion, Morgan Stanley estimates that the size of SWFs could swell to $12 trillion by 2015. SWFs ability to retain funds in perpetuity, combined with the lack of pressure to produce short-terms profits, allow the SWFs to exploit the benefits of volatility and liquidity unavailable to traditional hedge funds. Yet SWF's strategic objectives are often viewed with suspicion and hidden behind a veil of secrecy.

Join the London Junto and the Harvard Business Forum as our panel of experts debate the rise of Sovereign Wealth Funds and the implications for the global economy.

Guy Henriques is Head of Official Institutions at Schroder Investment Management, based in London. He is responsible for business development with official institutions globally, including central banks, sovereign wealth funds, national pension funds and supranational entities. Prior to joining Schroders in, he was Head of Asset Management at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS)in Basel, Switzerland. Guy spent some 15 years with the BIS, based both in Basel and in Hong Kong. He joined the Bank in 1991 and was Head of Foreign Exchange before moving to Hong Kong in 1998 to establish the BIS Asian Office. He was Head of Treasury for the Asia Pacific region until returning to Switzerland in 2002 to run the Bank's asset management business. He has a BA (Hons) in Sanskrit from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), London University.

John Francis Nugée is a Managing Director of SSgA Ltd, and head of State Street's Official Institutions Group. He is responsible for the relationship management of State Street's central bank and public sector clients, including the co-ordination of and advice on all the services State Street offer to the official sector. He joined SSgA in November 2000 after a career in official reserves management for central banks, including spells as the Executive Director in charge of reserves management at the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, and as the Chief Manager of reserves management at the Bank of England. He was also a director of the European Investment Bank and European Investment Fund, and a lecturer and technical adviser at the Bank of England's "Centre for Central Banking Studies", where he retains a visiting lectureship. John has a Mathematics degree from Cambridge University and a diploma in Business Studies from the London School of Economics. He has published a textbook on "Foreign Exchange Reserves Management for Central Banks."

Andrew Rozanov is Managing Director and Head of Sovereign Advisory at State Street Global Markets, the investment research and trading arm of State Street Corporation where he has been advising and servicing central banks and sovereign wealth funds on various aspects of reserve management. Andrew has worked in State Street's Japan office as a fund manager and product engineer and was also Director in the Equity Capital Markets Group at UBS Investment Bank in Tokyo. Andrew has a Master's Degree in Asian Studies (with concentration in Japan) from Moscow University. He has lived, studied and worked in Japan for a total of 20 years, and is fluent in English, Russian and Japanese. He is a CFA Charterholder, and also holds designations of Financial Risk Manager (FRM) and Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA). In 2005 Andrew introduced the term 'sovereign wealth funds' in one of his articles. His work has been published in The Wall Street Journal, Central Banking Quarterly Journal, The World Today, Professional Investor magazine, and Vedomosti financial daily. His research has been quoted or referenced in The Economist, Euromoney, Finance Asia, Les Echos, Smart Money and RGE Monitor.

DATE: Wednesday, December 3rd, 2008
TIME: 6:30 PM for 7:00 PM
LOCATION: Lansdowne Club (Shelburne Room)
9, Fitzmaurice Place, London. W1J 5JD.
Booking: www.londonjunto.com or email info@londonjunto.com
Tube: GreenPark.

Tickets for the event are £25.00. This includes:
=>A welcome glass of wine or other beverage
=>An opportunity to win copy of "When Markets Collide: Investment Strategies for the Age of Global Economic Change" by Mohamed El-Erian

Please register for the event by paying for the event on the link below:

"The Remarkable Rise of Africa: The Final Investment Frontier."

2008-09-18T13:15:00.009+01:00

"People love China and India, like Asia, are skeptical about Latin America and hate Africa" is the way one commentator summed up the conventional wisdom about Africa. Yet between 1995 and 2005, African stocks showed compound annual growth of 22%- a higher rate than of the world's more favored markets. Sub-Saharan African countries have also grown by an average of over 6% over the last four years straight. At this rate, Africa's poverty rate will halve by 2015.

Join the London Junto and the Harvard Business Forum as our panel of experts debate the prospects for Africa and its stockmarkets.

David Damiba is Senior Portfolio Manager, Renaissance Investment Management since June 2007. He has worked for the past 14 years in either a trading or portfolio management role. His area of expertise is trading, portfolio construction, relative value investing, and quantitative macro analysis. Prior to joining RIM (UK) Ltd he spent 9 years with Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities (New York), a leading broker-dealer and investment manager; there he worked as a principal trader and later as a market neutral portfolio manager. As a portfolio manager his focus was on conducting sector based quantitative macro analysis and creating a low volatility "portable alpha" like product. From 2003 to 2005 he was a Vice President and Head of Block Equity Trading for the GPC Group at Merrill Lynch & Co. (New York) where he led one of the world’s largest equity transactional businesses with more than $1billion of annual revenues.

Francis Beddington is Head of Research at Insparo Asset Management and one of the most experienced city analysts who covers African and Middle Eastern countries having been working on the region for over 15 years in both the public and private sector. He started his career as an economist with the UK Government in the Overseas Development Administration (now the Department for International Development) in 1992. He spent most of his career in the African Economics department covering all the major economies in West and North Africa. He was the country economist for Nigeria and involved in the Brady deal for Cote D'Ivoire.In 1997 Francis joined Chase Manhattan where his original remit was to provide economic analysis on South Africa. Following the merger with JPMorgan Francis was appointed Head of Economics and Strategy for the Middle East and Africa. In 2005 Francis joined Standard Bank Plc as Head of Research CEEMEA based in London Standard Bank's research was one of the driving forces behind the development of the domestic bond markets in a number of African countries.

DATE: Tuesday, October 7th, 2008
TIME: 6:30 PM for 7:00 PM
LOCATION: Lansdowne Club (Shelburne Room)
9, Fitzmaurice Place, London. W1J 5JD.
Booking: www.londonjunto.com or email info@londonjunto.com
Tube: GreenPark.

Tickets for the event are £25.00. This includes:
=>A welcome glass of wine or other beverage
=>An opportunity to win copy of Robert Guest's book:"The Shackled Continent: Africa's Past, Present and Future."

Please register for the event by paying for the event on the link below:

"The Elephant Awakes: The Top Investment Opportunities in Today's India," March 27th, at the Lansdowne Club

2008-03-06T00:21:00.006Z

Winston Churchill once famously described India as a mere "geographical expression" -- a land that was "no more a united nation than the Equator" -- with more than 35 languages and each language spoken by one million people. Yet today India has emerged as one of the top economic growth stories in the global economy. India has over 4,500 listed companies--a stock picker's paradise--and a recent report from Goldman Sachs says that India could leapfrog the UK, France, and Italy to become the world's fifth-largest economy. Join the London Junto and Harvard Business Forum's panel of experts in discussing the prospects for India and its stockmarket

Deepak Lalwani is a Director with London stockbroker, Astaire and Partners and specializes on the Indian stock market. He is a qualified UK accountant by training and went on to become a Member of The London Stock Exchange. Deepak authors the India Report which is a macro view on the Indian economy. He appears on international television giving views on the India story. He is also quoted in various papers around the world.

Sanjiv Shah is the Portfolio Manager of Agra India Fund Limited, a long/short Indian Equity Hedge Fund which commenced trading December 2006. He is also co-founder of India Value Investments Limited, a long-only India fund, which was established in 1996. He has also worked for Lazard Brothers, Paribas Capital Markets, the Bank of England and the Financial Services Authority. Sanjiv has first class degree in Economics from Cambridge University. At Cambridge, he was taught Economics in the Keynesian tradition but his experience and observations of business cycles and markets since then has resulted in a conversion to Hayek, Von Mises and the Austrian School.

Sumon Bauhmik is a Senior Lecturer at Brunel University, and a Research Fellow with the William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan and IZA - Institute for the Study of Labour in Bonn. He has worked with ICRA Limited (the associate of Moody's Investors Service in India), London Business School and Queen's University Belfast. His research encompasses a number of issues in the broad areas of banking and finance, international business and economic development, and the context for much of his research is India. He obtained his MA and PhD in Economics from the University of Southern California.

DATE: Thursday, March 27th, 2008
TIME: 6:30 PM for 7:00 PM
LOCATION: Lansdowne Club (Shelburne Room)
9, Fitzmaurice Place, London. W1J 5JD.
Booking: www.londonjunto.com or email info@londonjunto.com
Tube: GreenPark.

Tickets for the event are £25.00. This includes:
=>A welcome glass of wine or other beverage
=>An opportunity to win copy of Ed Luce's book:"Against the Gods: The Strange Rise of Modern India."

Please register for the event by paying for the event on the link below:

“What Makes A Great Hedge Fund Manager.... and Winning Strategies for 2008" with Katherine Burton. January 30th at the Lansdowne Club

2008-01-06T18:09:00.001Z

Katherine Burton draws upon her experience of interviewing the 23 of the world's top hedge fund managers for her recently published book "Hedge Hunters: Hedge Fund Masters on the Rewards, the Risk, and the Reckoning" in discussing what it takes to be one of the world's top hedge fund managers. Barron's called her book "A readable, relevant book, with lessons a new generation of hedge-fund managers... would do well to take to heart."

Katherine will be presenting with Guillaume Rambourg of Gartmore Investments. Guillaume has spent the last 9 years working closely with colleague Roger Guy on Gartmore Fund Managers' European equity team where he is in joint charge of European retail investment and high performance funds. Together they will discuss what makes a great hedge fund manager. Guillaume will then provide his outlook for European equities/sectors for 2008.

Join the London Junto and the Harvard Business Forum and come and catch a glimpse into the minds of today's top hedge fund managers.

About Katherine Burton and Guillaume Rambourg

Katherine Burton has been a reporter at Bloomberg News since 1993, covering hedge funds and investment management. Before joining Bloomberg, she wrote for the International Herald Tribune and U.S. News & World Report. She has an MBA from New York University and is a winner of the 2001 Society of American Business Editors and Writers Award for breaking news, and the 2005 New Jersey Chapter of the Society of Professional Journalists Award for Excellence in Journalism for business writing. "Hedge Hunters" is her first book.

Guillaume Rambourg initially joined Gartmore's European equity team as an assistant investment manager in 1995. Prior to embarking on a career in money management Rambourg studied at top French business school ESSEC. He graduated in 1993 having majored in Finance.

DATE: Wednesday, January 30th, 2008
TIME: 6:30 PM for 7:00 PM
LOCATION: Lansdowne Club (Shelburne Room)
9, Fitzmaurice Place, London. W1J 5JD.
Booking: www.londonjunto.com or email info@londonjunto.com
Tube: GreenPark.

Tickets for the event are £25.00. This includes:
=>A welcome glass of wine or other beverage
=>An opportunity to win a dedicated copy of Katherine Burton's book "Hedge Hunters"
=>Copies of the book will be available for signing and dedication at the presentation for a special discounted price of approximately £10.

Please register for the event by paying for the event on the link below:

"Mapping the Markets: What Market Cycles Have To Say About Global Financial Turmoil" with Deborah Owen- September 18th at the Lansdowne Club.

2007-08-24T00:47:00.000+01:00

Join the London Junto and the Harvard Club of UK Business Forum on September 18th with Deborah Owen, managing director of Investment Research of Cambridge (IRC), for her presentation:

"Mapping the Markets: What Market Cycles Have To Say About Global Financial Turmoil"

The recent turmoil in the markets unleashed by the subprime woes in the U.S. has served as a wake up call for investors. In her presentation, Deborah Owen will offer a global overview of business cycles and their impact on financial markets, explain how stock markets are affected by the cycles and by seasonal and secular trends, as well as reveal how to identify sectors and stock in which to invest. She will also provide global view of today's markets including macroeconomics , technical analysis, and demographic trends, as well as provide insights on how to detect forthcoming market fluctuations. Finally, Deborah Owen will also reveal her controversial take on the recent global market turmoil.

Come and match wits with one of the City's leading market forecasters and technical analysts.

About Deborah Owen

Deborah Owen is managing director of Investment Research of Cambridge (IRC). Founded in 1945, IRC (www.irc100.com) was one of the first companies in the UK to specialise in technically-based research and it has a global reputation for the quality of its analysis of the financial markets. Deborah is co-author (with Robin Griffiths) of "Mapping the Markets" published by the Economist in 2006, which has been described as a lucidly written and carefully explained exploration of the cyclical changes of the market

After reading economics at university, Deborah started working in the City as a financial journalist for Euromoney magazine. She then worked as a currency strategist for Chemical Bank and Charterhouse Bank before starting her own financial publishing business. In addition to "Mapping the Markets," she is co-author (with Peter Cole) of and EMU in Perspective published in 1999. She is a Fellow of the Society of Technical Analysts and edits the Society’s Journal.

DATE: Tuesday, September 18th, 2007
TIME: 6:30 PM for 7:00 PM
LOCATION: Lansdowne Club
9, Fitzmaurice Place, London. W1J 5JD.
Booking: info@londonjunto.com
Tube: GreenPark.
Map: The Lansdowne Club

Tickets for the event are £25.00. This includes:

=>A welcome glass of wine or other beverage
=>An opportunity to win a copy of Deborah Owen's book "Mapping the Markets"
=>Additional copies of "Mapping the Markets" will be available for sale and dedication

Please register for the event by paying on PAYPAL (link below-takes VISA etc.) You DO NOT need a PayPal account. However, some corporate firewalls block paypal payment. If so, please drop me an e-mail at info@londonjunto.com with the following details: Name, billing address, card type (VISA etc.), expiration date, card number, the CVN (Card Verification Number-the three digit number on the back of the card.)

Nassim Nicholas Taleb on "The Black Swan:The Impact of the Highly Improbable"

2007-05-14T16:24:00.000+01:00

Join the London Junto and the Harvard Club of UK Business Forum on June 12th with Nicholas Nassim Taleb, author of the bestsellers "Fooled By Randomness" and "Black Swan" for his presentation:

"The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable"

A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible." For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. In this revelatory book, he explains everything we know about what we don't know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. Join the London Junto and the Harvard Business Forum to hear and debate Nassim Nicholas Taleb his important and groundbreaking views. Derivatives traders who disagree with Taleb's thinking are particulary encouraged to attend.

About Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Nicholas Nasim Taleb is an essayist, belletrist, & researcher only interested in one single topic, chance (particularly extreme & rare events, the "Black Swans" i.e. outliers); but it falls at the intersection of philosophy/epistemology (skepticism; knowledge about the dynamics of history; inferential claims), philosophy/ethics (stoicism facing random events; theories of nonhedonic happiness), mathematical sciences (probability theory, statistical physics), social science/finance (opacity & incomplete information in economics), and cognitive science (the mental biases making us "fooled" by randomness). He mainly derives his intuitions from a 2-decade long and intense practice of derivatives trading ("nondull" activities with plenty of randomness).

DATE: Tuesday, June 12th, 2006
TIME: 6:45 PM for 7:30 PM
LOCATION: Miller's Academy,
28a Hereford Road , London W2 5AJ (Just of Westbourne Grove)
The London Junto

Tickets for the event are £30.00. This includes:

=>A welcome glass of wine or other beverage and a buffet dinner after the events
=>An opportunity to win a copy of Nassim Taleb's book "The Black Swan"
=>Additional copies of "Black Swan" will be available for sale and signing

Because this is a joint event with Miller's Academy, the London Junto is limited to a total of 30 places. PLEASE register early to avoid disappointment!

Please register for the event directly on Millers Academy website (www.millersacademy.co.uk)

Not that London Junto members are eligible for the member's rate

“The Flat Tax – Why Do So Many Politicos Not 'Get It'"? with Steve Forbes, December 4th, 6:30 PM, The Lansdowne Club

2006-11-20T10:34:00.001Z

In his important book "Flat Tax Revolution," Steve Forbes discusses how a simple flat tax regime would slash tax rates, spur economic growth, stop special interests from getting tax breaks, eliminate shady accounting--and put legions of tax collectors out of work. The Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania implemented flat tax regimes in the mid-1990s- and have recorded Asian Tiger-like economic growth rates ever since. Russia introduced a flat tax in 2001- and tax revenues doubled. Others like Ukraine followed in 2003, Slovakia in 2004, and Romania in 2005. Macedonia announced the introduction of a flat tax just last week, and Greece and Croatia intend to introduce flat tax regimes as well. Countries that have implemented flat tax regimes have seen both tax revenues and economic growth rates explode.

With both the opposition Tories and the Liberal Democrats considering radical new tax policies inspired by the successes of flat tax regimes in the "New Europe," the flat tax is firmly on the political agenda in the UK-just in time for the upcoming elections in 2007. Join the London Junto and the Harvard Business Forum to hear and debate former U.S. Presidential candidate Steve Forbes on his important and groundbreaking views on flat tax regimes.

About Steve Forbes

Steve Forbes is President and Chief Executive Officer of Forbes and Editor-in-Chief of Forbes magazine.

Since Mr. Forbes assumed his position in 1990, the company has launched a variety of new publications and businesses. They include: ForbesLife (formerly FYI), the irreverent, lifestyle supplement; Forbes Asia; and Chinese, Korean, Japanese, Russian, Arabic, Hebrew, Polish and Turkish editions of the magazine.

The company’s flagship publication, Forbes, is the nation’s leading business magazine, with a circulation of more than 900,000. Forbes combined with Forbes Asia and the company's eight local-language editions together reach a worldwide audience of over five million readers.

Mr. Forbes writes editorials for each issue of Forbes under the heading of “Fact and Comment.” A widely respected
economic prognosticator, he is the only writer to have won the highly prestigious Crystal Owl Award four times. The prize was formerly given by U.S. Steel Corporation to the financial journalist whose economic forecasts for the coming year proved most accurate.

In both 1996 and 2000, Mr. Forbes campaigned vigorously for the Republican nomination for the Presidency. Key to his platform were a flat tax, medical savings accounts, a new Social Security system for working Americans, parental choice of schools for their children, term limits and a strong national defense. Mr. Forbes continues to energetically promote this agenda.

Mr. Forbes is the author of the recently published Flat Tax Revolution: Using a Postcard to Abolish the IRS (Regnery, 2005). He also wrote A New Birth of Freedom (Regnery, 1999), a book of bold ideas for the new millennium.

In 1985, President Reagan named Mr. Forbes Chairman of the bi-partisan Board for International Broadcasting (BIB). In this position, he oversaw the operation of Radio Free Europe and Radio Liberty. Broadcasting behind the Iron Curtain, Radio Free Europe and Radio Liberty were praised by Poland's Lech Walesa as being critical to the struggle against communism. Mr. Forbes was reappointed to his post by President George H. W. Bush and served until 1993.

Steve Forbes was born on July 18, 1947, in Morristown, New Jersey. He graduated cum laude in 1966 from Brooks School in North Andover, Massachusetts. He received a B.A. in history from Princeton in 1970. At Princeton, he was the founding editor of Business Today, which became the country's largest magazine published by students for students, with a circulation of 200,000. The magazine continues to be published today by Princeton
undergraduates.

Mr. Forbes serves on the boards of The Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation, the Heritage Foundation and The
Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. He is on the Board of Overseers of the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center and on the Board of Visitors for the School of Public Policy of Pepperdine University. He served on the Board of Trustees of Princeton University for ten years. Mr. Forbes also holds honorary degrees from 25 universities and colleges from across the globe.

Tickets for the event are £35.00. This includes:

A welcome glass of wine or other beverage, and assorted canapes.
An opportunity to win a copy of Steve Forbes' "Flat Tax Revolution:Using a Postcard to Abolish the IRS."

Please pay on PAYPAL (link below-takes VISA etc.) You DO NOT need a PayPal account. Alternatively, drop me an e-mail at info@londonjunto.com with the following details: Name, billing address, card type (VISA etc.), expiration date, card number, the CVN (Card Verification Number-the three digit number on the back of the card.)

Lansdowne Club, 9, Fitzmaurice Place, London. W1J 5JD. Booking:/info@londonjunto.com Tube: GreenPark. Registration essential.

THE DEADLINE FOR REGISTRATION AND PAYMENT IS December 1, 2006

"'Per Ardua Ad Astra'...Through Adversity, to the Stars: Global Macro in 2007 " with Philippe Bonnefoy, November 14th, 6:30 PM, The Lansdowne Club

2006-10-30T21:48:00.001Z

Join the London Junto and the Harvard Club of UK Business Forum for an evening with Philippe Bonnefoy, Head of Cedar Partners, and one of the world's leading authorities on Global Macro Hedge Funds.

The granddaddy of all hedge fund strategies, "Global Macro" guaranteed fame and fortune for hedge fund greats George Soros, Louis Bacon, Paul Tudor Jones and Bruce Kovner. Yet in 2006, managers of global macro hedge funds have lagged behind market benchmarks such as the Standard & Poor's 500 Index after being caught off guard by this year's choppy stock, bond and commodity markets. With information travelling at light speed across the globe, is global macro yesterday's game? Can investors still make a fortune betting alongside managers who bet on big picture thematic views? Come listen to and debate the views of one of the world's leading experts in the global macro hedge fund space.

About Philippe Bonnefoy

Philippe Bonnefoy is Chairman, Tactical Asset Allocation Committee, Cedar Partners; Director, Cedar Fund; and Portfolio Manager of the Katana Fund.

Philippe began his career at Kidder, Peabody & Co., New York, in 1983, as an analyst in international corporate finance. There, he managed the international equity investments for Kidder, Peabody, later joining ex- colleagues, in 1988, to develop a risk arbitrage proprietary trading group pursuing a number of hedge fund strategies. In 1999, Philippe identified other opportunities in alternative investments. He founded Cedar Partners Investment Management Limited ("CPIM") to provide alternative investment advisory services to financial institutions. Between 1999 and 2001 Philippe was an external consultant to Commerzbank Securities, and from 2002 to 2006 CPIM was the external advisor for alternative investment strategies (which grew to $2bn assets under management) to Commerzbank Capital Markets Corporation. He established the Cedar Fund in 2002, which had been the bank’s proprietary hedge fund investment portfolio.

Philippe is also responsible for overall portfolio positioning, idea generation, strategy weightings and tactical investments for the Katana Fund, to be launched in December. Philippe is currently a member of the Sound Practices Committee of the Alternative Investment Management Association.

Tickets for the event are £20.00. This includes:

A welcome glass of wine or other beverage
An opportunity to win a copy of Steven Drobny's "Inside the House of Money."

Please pay on PAYPAL (link below-takes VISA etc.) You DO NOT need a PayPal account. Alternatively, drop me an e-mail at info@londonjunto.com with the following details: Name, billing address, card type (VISA etc.), expiration date, card number, the CVN (Card Verification Number-the three digit number on the back of the card.)

Lansdowne Club, 9, Fitzmaurice Place, London. W1J 5JD. Booking: /info@londonjunto.com Tube: GreenPark. Thurs. June 22, 6:30 -9:00 PM; £20. Registration essential.

THE DEADLINE FOR REGISTRATION AND PAYMENT IS November 10, 2005

"'Use Your Eyes and Plagiarise': Lessons From a 50 Year Career in Investment Management" with Nils Taube, October 10th, 6:30 PM, The Lansdowne Club

2006-09-20T10:24:00.000+01:00

When once asked, to what he attributed exceptional track record as an investor, quick as a flash, and with a characteristic deep chuckle, Nils Taube came back the answer: "Plagiarism, of course!" Mr Taube's particular metier, as he tells it, has been "international plagiarism", the concept that a good idea from one market will often "travel well" and work equally successfully in another region or time zone. Now 78 years young, he has been running his first fund continuously since 1969, a record of service that no other London fund manager comes close to matching. All of the funds he and his colleagues have launched have outperformed their benchmarks by between 5 per cent and 8 per cent a year compound over periods of more than 15 years. Accumulation units in his original European fund have grown in value 200 fold, or just under 16 per cent a year, since 1969. Join him as he shares his wit, wisdom and wealth of experience with the Junto and Harvard alumni.

About Nils Taube

Nils Taube was born in Estonia in 1928 but has lived in England since 1946. He joined Kitcat & Aitken (stockbrokers) in 1948, became a Partner in 1957 and Senior Partner in 1975. He was a member of the Council of the Stock Exchange from 1977 to 1982. He co-founded The Society of Investment Analysts in 1955 and The Institute for Fiscal Studies, now a leading UK think tank (in 1969) and of which he is still a Member of the Executive Committee. In 1982, he left Kitcat & Aitken to join Lord Rothschild’s group of companies as Principal Investment Adviser until 1996 when, with two colleagues, he formed Taube Hodson Stonex Partners, a firm of Investment Managers in London, of which he is Chairman.

Tickets for the event are £20.00. This includes:

A welcome glass of wine or other beverage
An opportunity to win a copy of James Morton's 1997 classic (which includes a profile of Nils Taube) Investing with the Grand Masters

Please pay on PAYPAL (link below-takes VISA etc.) You DO NOT need a PayPal account. Alternatively, drop me an e-mail at info@londonjunto.com with the following details: Name, billing address, card type (VISA etc.), expiration date, card number, the CVN (Card Verification Number-the three digit number on the back of the card.)

THE DEADLINE FOR REGISTRATION AND PAYMENT IS October 6, 2005

"Master of the Art: How Crafty Old Ben Franklin Prospered in An Age of War, Inflation, and International Intrigue."June 22nd, Lansdowne Club, 6:30PM

2006-05-25T13:34:00.001+01:00

In his adult life, Ben Franklin suffered numerous personal and financial setbacks yet was able to survive and prosper by practicing what he preached through his trinity of moral virtue, "industry - frugality -- prudence." He died in 1790 at the age of 84, a very rich man and now listed as one of The Wealthy 100: The 100 Wealthiest Americans of All Time.

Our discussion will be led by Mark Skousen, editor of The Compleated Autobiography of Benjamin Franklin

Known as the "maverick" of economics for his contrarian and optimistic views, his sometimes-outrageous statements and predictions, Mark Skousen is a college professor, prolific author and world-renowned speaker. He's made his unique sense of market and investment trends known and respected in the financial world. With a Ph.D. in economics and a focus on the principles of free-market capitalism and "Austrian" economics, Mark Skousen has often gone contrary to the crowd in his investment choices and economic predictions -- and has often been proved right. Predicting of the biggest bull market on Wall Street in the 20th century -- the 1990s, Mark Skousen has built a reputation for not only accurately identifying the right economic and political trends, but also the right investments for the times.

An almost idealistic proponent of liberty and political freedom, Mark Skousen is actively involved in some of the most prestigious free-market and liberty think tanks in the world. He frequently speaks and writes articles for organizations such as the Cato Institute, the Foundation for Economic Education, the Libertarian Party, the Council for National Policy and the Mt. Pelerin Society.

Lansdowne Club, 9, Fitzmaurice Place, London. W1J 5JD. Booking/info@londonjunto.com Tube: GreenPark. Thurs. June 22, 6:30 -9:00 PM; £20. Registration essential.

"A Taste For Investment: The Art of Investing in Fine Wines." May 11th, The Lansdowne Club, 6:30PM for 7:00 PM

2006-04-20T06:35:00.000+01:00

Join the London Junto on May 11th in an evening dedicated to Dyonisus.

James Miles, Managing Director, Liv-ex

Founder and director of the London International Vintner's Exchange (Liv-ex), an electronic trading and information platform for the global wine trade, Liv-ex also provides fine wine price information and analysis to private collectors and enthusiasts from its website www.liv-ex.com. Prior to setting up Liv-ex, James was an equities analyst and strategist for 8 years in London and Hong Kong

Andrew Davison, Director & Fund Manager, Vintage Wine Fund

Formerly a senior derivatives trader at Deutsche Bank, Andrew was Director of the Global Markets division with responsibility for one of Deutsche's largest trading books. In 2001, he joined the wine merchant Bordeaux Index where he established the first two-way market-making screen for wine futures on the Bordeaux 2000 vintage and was responsible for managing private client portfolios. He left Bordeaux Index in March 2002 to set up OWC Asset Management Ltd.

Tickets for the event are £47.50. This includes:

A welcome glass of Champagne
A Wine Tasting featuring a total of eight 'Sommelier' quality wines-four whites and four reds
An opportunity to win a copy of Mahesh Kumar's book: Wine Investment for Portfolio Diversification: How Collecting Fine Wines Can Yield Greater Returns Than Stocks and Bonds

The Wine Tasting will be blind with tasters working in small teams to determine three things about the wines: the grape variety, the price and the country of origin. Tasters need not be wine experts. Teams will write up their conclusions on score sheets. At the end of the evening the winning team will receive wine related prizes.

Please note that the event is limited to 40 guests. Tickets will be allocated on a first come, first served basis. All tickets must be paid for in advance. Please register and pay for the event by clicking on the link below.

This event is co-sponsored by the Harvard Business Forum

"The Sun Rises Again: Investing in The Japanese Recovery." March 22nd., Lansdowne Club 6:30 PM for 7:00 P.M.

2006-03-17T09:29:00.000Z

With the recent upturn in the both the Japanese stockmarket,The London Junto's March session will explore investment opportunities in the world's second largest economy.

Our panel consists of the three following distinguished members:

Ian McCAllum, Fund Manager, Japan, Bedlam Asset Management.

Shigeru Shimizu, Senior Representative, Europe, Bank of Japan

Yu Iwata, Marketing Manager, Nikko Global Asset Management

Please note that in accordance with the Bank of Japan's request and order to encourage the open discussion by all participants, the Junto will be held in accordance with the Chatham House Rule.

This event is sponsored jointly with the Harvard Club of UK's Business Forum

Please RSVP Nicholas Vardy at info(a)londonjunto.com.

Lansdowne Club, 9 Fitzmaurice Place,Mayfair, London W1J 5JD

Planned London Junto Events for 2006

2006-01-20T11:38:00.000Z

Here is a preliminary list of events planned for the first half of 2006. Please note that the topics and speakers are subject to change:

February 22nd- "Investment Prospects in the 'New Europe': EU Accession Two Years On."

Edward Lucas, Eastern European Correspondent, The Economist.

James B. Oates, Senior Advisor, CA-IB Investment Bank.

Julian Mayo, Investment Director, Charlemagne Capital.

March 22nd- "The Sun Rises Again?: Investing in the Japanese Recovery."

Ian McCAllum, Fund Manager, Japan, Bedlam Asset Management.

Shigeru Shimizu, Senior Representative, Europe, Bank of Japan

Yu Iwata, Marketing Manager, Nikko Global Asset Management

June- "The Investment Secrets of Benjamin Franklin" Dr. Mark Skousen, author of "The Compleated Biography of Benjamin Franklin." Ben Franklin was the founder of the original Junto in Philadelphia.

In addition, Steven Forbes, Editor of Forbes Magazine and former U.S. presidential candidate, has agreed to lead a Junto discussion the next time he is in London.

If you have not already done so, please register for the Junto Newsletter on www.londonjunto.com to receive invitatios to these and other Junto events.

"The Scandal of Prediction" A presentation/debate with Nassim Nicholas Taleb-Travelers Club, Dec 1st. 6:30PM for 7:00 PM

2005-11-29T10:39:00.000Z

Please note that the venue is the Travelers Club (106 Pall Mall) NOT The Lansdowne Club, the Junto's normal venue.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb has firmly ensconced himself as one of the most colorful (and controversial) figures in finance. Rarely do I mention anyone's name and get such a "love'm or hate'em" response. Taleb made his public reputation with the publication of his now cult classic "Fooled By Randomness: The Role of Chance in Markets and in Life" in late 2001. He had been already well known to derivatives traders through the publication of his seminal work in that field, "Dynamic Hedging" in 1997. Few of us who trade derivatives did not earn our intellectual spurs by studying Taleb's book.

I was so impressed by the "Fooled By Randomness" when I first came across it that I purchased several (signed) copies and distributed them as Christmas gifts to all of the Board Members of a hedge fund I was managing at the time. Considering one of the major underlying arguments in the book (that most investment managers with outstanding track records are more lucky than smart), this probably was not the most apposite thing to do.

Taleb calls himself a "skeptical empiricist." Indeed, his current title is "Dean's Professor in the Sciences of Uncertainty Isenberg School of management University of Massachusetts, Amherst." He is also Chairman of Empirica LLC, a fund of hedge funds.

Taleb's specialty (and this comes from his website www.fooledbyrandomness.com) is chance (particularly extreme & rare events); but it falls at the intersection of philosophy/epistemology (skepticism; knowledge about the dynamics of history; inferential claims), philosophy/ethics (stoicism facing random events; theories of nonhedonic happiness), mathematics (probability, statistical physics), social science/finance (opacity & incomplete information; why economists have no clue but think that they know a lot), and cognitive science (how we are all fooled by randomness).

At the Junto, Taleb will presenting the ideas in a chapter of an upcoming book "The Scandal of Prediction"- a title that is emblematic of his sometimes rhetorically provocative style. If you would like a preview, you can download a draft of his presentation on www.fooledbyrandomness.com/prediction.pdf

I am particularly pleased to have Taleb agree to present at the Junto, as has assiduously eschews mainstream business types. I successfully convinced (and I genuinely hope, accurately!) that the Junto attracts persons who can engage and challenge him on his views with an intellectual integrity and sophistication that befits this modern day Mencken of finance.

"The Next Megatrend: Profiting from the Commodities Boom." November 15th, Lansdowne Club

2005-10-18T08:29:00.000+01:00

The next Junto is scheduled for November 15th, at the Lansdowne Club, 6:30 for 7:00 PM. This month our topic is the boom in commodities - and how investors can profit from it. As always, our panel will represents a broad range of viewpoints and perspectives- and ones that challenge and engage the Junto's sophisticated audience.

Commodities last experienced a boom in the inflationary 1970s. But since the start of the great equity bull market in 1982, they had fallen our of favor-this, despite that they always constituted a larger asset class than equities.

Thanks to $70+ oil prices, even mainstream investors have refocused their attention on commodities. Indeed, as equity markets have languished, commodity prices have more than tripled since the the dawn of the new millenium. And once again, investors are looking for opportunities to take part in what appears to be a ride straight up.

As always, there is more than one way to skin this investment cat. Jim Rogers - in his book "Hot Commodities" -outlines why he created his own commodities index to ride the commodities megatrend to reflect his view that certain commodities (such as oil) are overrepresented in mainstream indices.

At November's Junto, we hope to present a broad range of approaches to making money out of the commodities boom- ranging from quantitative analysis of trends, to fundamental views based on waning supply, to the design of novel financial derivative products.

Please register on www.londonjunto.com to be placed on the invitation list.

This event is being organized jointly with The Harvard Business Forum

London Junto-"The Dragon Awakes: Investing in Today's China." October 5th, Lansdowne Club.

2005-09-15T18:05:00.000+01:00

We’ve assembled a terrific panel for the October Junto on Wednesday, October 5th at the Lansdowne Club. 6:30 PM for 7:00 PM.

As with our previous three events, the London Junto is co-sponsoring this panel with the Harvard Business Forum. The debate will followed by a dinner with the three panelists and attended by a core group of about 15 attendees.

I’ve focused on attracting a wide range of viewpoints and perspectives on this compelling and controversial topic: Dr. Philippa Malmgren, former advisor on China and financial markets to the current White House; Andrew Leung, a distinguished former Hong Kong Chinese administrator and diplomat (and regular Junto attendee), and Tim Clissold, an investor in China and author of the highly acclaimed “Mr. China,” an Economist Book of the Year.

I felt that investment in China would be a particularly relevant topic given the coverage the rise of China is attracting in the popular media. During the Cold War, it was the Soviet Union; during the 1980s it was Japan; and today it is China, it seems, who are destined to take over the world.

The immediate fillip for the topic was the cover story of the August 1st edition of Fortune Magazine, entitled “America: The 97 lb. Weakling.” The cover portrayed Uncle Sam as the skinny wimp on a beach being beat up by a brainy and muscular, 180 lb. Chinese bully. (“I’d smash your face-only you’re so skinny you might dry up and blow away”).

Since stories like this tend to make it on the cover of magazines precisely at market tops, I promptly shorted the Chinese stock index-reminding myself how much money I could have made had I done the same with Japan 15 years ago.

My analysis was rather unconventional: I adjusted the cartoon figures’ weights for the actual size of both the Chinese and US economies. My 8th grade algebra told me that if, in fact, Uncle Sam weighed 97 lbs., then China would weigh about 13lbs. Put another way, based on nominal GDP (granted, not PPP adjusted), the economy of China, with its population of 1.25 billion, is roughly the size of California, with 35 million inhabitants.

Conclusion: yes, the 13lb pre-toddler may yet grow into the strapping, muscular young (Chinese) man as depicted on the cover of Fortune magazine. But it's unlikely to happen tomorrow...

I also recognize that this analysis is more rhetorical and facile than one borne out of genuine insight. So I wanted to explore the China phenomenon more deeply.

I initially wanted to invite a “China Bull”, a “China Bear”, and someone who has actually had experience in running a business in China. Needless to say, categories of “bull” and “bear” proved to be too black and white (“Manichean”?) for any of our China experts.

But VERY broadly (and I stand ready to be corrected for any unintentional misrepresentations), Dr. Philippa Malmgren, has agreed to the moniker “China Bear,”Andrew Leung, has agreed to be a “China Bull”-albeit a moderate one. And Tim Clissold-is a perhaps surprising bull, given his experiences as an investor in China -a story he hilariously recounts in his book “Mr. China.” Tim will also have a few copies of his book on hand and can dedicate personally.

I hope you can attend for what should be a terrific evening with some outstanding presentation and debate.

Upcoming Junto Events-Rise of China, Nassim Taleb on "The Scandal of Prediction."

2005-08-18T11:56:00.000+01:00

We are working hard on putting together a strong set of Junto events for the fall.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of Fooled By Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Markets and in Life, has confirmed that he will present at the Junto in December. The title of his presentation will be: "The Scandal of Prediction: Hayekian Perspectives, Non-Explicit Knowledge, and Cures." Posted on his website at:

http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/scheduledseminars.htm

The presentation will be loosely based on a chapter of his upcoming book ("The Scandal of Prediction" ) forthcoming in "The Black Swan."

We are also in the process of putting together a panel on China. With business magazines predicting the ineluctable rise of China (and the consequent decline of the US- see the latest cover of Fortune magazine), it seems like a good time to examine some contrarian arguments. We've got two speakers confirmed, looking to confirm a third, for early to mid October. Details forthcoming.

Dr. Mark Skousen- July 7th Junto

2005-07-06T17:22:00.000+01:00

Known as the "maverick" of economics for his contrarian and optimistic views, his sometimes-outrageous statements and predictions, Mark Skousen is a college professor, prolific author and world-renowned speaker. He's made his unique sense of market and investment trends known and respected in the financial world. With a Ph.D. in economics and a focus on the principles of free-market capitalism and "Austrian" economics, Mark Skousen has often gone contrary to the crowd in his investment choices and economic predictions -- and has often been proved right.His more unusual predictions include:

Forecasting in the early 1980s that "Reaganomics will work!"

Sending a special alert to subscribers of Forecasts & Strategies to "Sell all stocks and mutual funds" on Sept. 8, 1987, just six weeks before the 1987 Stock Market Crash

Calling for the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the collapse of Soviet Communism

Predicting of the biggest bull market on Wall Street in the 20th century -- the 1990s

Mark Skousen has built a reputation for not only accurately identifying the right economic and political trends, but also the right investments for the times.An almost idealistic proponent of liberty and political freedom, Mark Skousen is actively involved in some of the most prestigious free-market and liberty think tanks in the world. He frequently speaks and writes articles for organizations such as the Cato Institute, the Foundation for Economic Education, the Libertarian Party, the Council for National Policy and the Mt. Pelerin Society. You can read many of those articles or listen to some of his speeches.